The United States could be heading toward a population decline within the next few decades, not because Americans have stopped wanting children, but because they are having far fewer than they desire, according to a new report from the Institute for Family Studies (IFS). Researchers warn that the gap between desired and actual family size has reached one of the widest points in modern history, with Americans saying they want about 2.4 children on average while the actual fertility rate has fallen below 1.6 children per woman.
Lyman Stone, director of the IFS Pronatalism Initiative and co-author of the report, told Fox News Digital that the discrepancy is closely tied to family formation. Stone said Americans have not given up on having children. Instead, as more people delay marriage or forgo it altogether, many fall short of the family size they envisioned. «What most people want is family,» Stone said. He noted that people who marry earlier are far more likely to reach their family size goals. «Conditional on marrying early enough, people almost always hit their fertility desires. The main factor shaping undershooting is just not getting married.»
Stone pushed back on the idea that the decline in birth rates is linked to a rise in medical infertility, arguing instead that Americans have delayed starting their families. According to a 2025 statement from the U.S. Census Bureau, the median age at first marriage has risen to 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women, compared with 23.5 and 21.1 in 1975. «There's not been a dramatic decline in health or reproductive ability. Humans are able to reproduce like we always have, but the choice to delay is exposing more people to the difficulty of age, and it does change their biological options in an adverse way,» he said. «It's better to start earlier.»
The IFS report also identified «peer culture» as a key factor in fertility. Young Americans with highly supportive friendships reported wanting larger families. Among Americans under 30, respondents with the most supportive friend groups said they would like to have roughly 2.8 children, compared with 1.7 children among those with the least supportive friend groups. Stone said researchers have yet to analyze whether having friends who are married and have children makes someone more likely to start a family, though he suspects there is likely a connection.
The report warns that if current trends continue, the U.S. could hit peak population in the 2050s before sliding into a steady decline. Stone told Fox News Digital that «growth will basically fall to nearly zero by like the late 2030s.» He added, «We kind of do this like long, slow plateau type of thing. But then, in the late 2050s and into the 2060s, decline becomes fairly rapid. And by end of century, we could be looking at nearly a one percentage point population decline every year.» The IFS report projects that if fertility rates continue to decline, the U.S. population will peak at 351 million before starting to decline in the 2050s. However, if fertility rates stabilize, the population is projected to peak at 366 million and begin declining in the 2080s.
Stone argued that reversing the trend in birth rates would likely require policymakers to make family formation a higher priority. The report makes several recommendations, including eliminating marriage penalties in tax and welfare programs, expanding family-friendly housing, and creating more financial incentives that encourage Americans to have children. Stone said the broader debate should focus less on whether government should intervene in family life and more on how it can improve the way it already intervenes. «I'm not arguing that the government should go from non-intervention to intervention,» he said. «We're arguing we've got to wake up and be honest, the government is already intervening on family life and it's time to stop intervening against family life.»
Stone warned that the consequences of declining birth rates go beyond population numbers and said that strong families are essential to the long-term success of the U.S. «Families are the bedrock of a functional society. It's family growth that built this country. It is family growth that will keep this country going. And if we do not have families growing, liberty will not long last,» he said.
